MD 0405 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
Areas affected…Parts of south TX
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 100057Z – 100300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent
SUMMARY…Severe storm development is expected later this evening.
Large hail will be possible initially, with an increasing severe
wind risk with time.
DISCUSSION…The western portion of surface boundary is beginning to
move southward as a cold front across parts of the southwest TX Hill
Country this evening. Later this evening, this front will begin
intercepting rich low-level moisture which is streaming westward
across south-central TX. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel
lapse rates will support MUCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg near the
front. As this occurs, increasing ascent ahead of a mid/upper-level
trough over west TX will aid in storm development near and to the
immediate cool side of the boundary.
Strong mid-upper level southwesterly flow will support effective
shear of greater than 50 kt region wide, and initial development may
evolve quickly into supercells with a threat of very large hail.
However, quick upscale growth will be possible, as convection moves
into a region where rather strong heating and steepening of
low-level lapse rates occurred earlier today, a scenario supported
by recent HRRR and RRFS runs. Should this occur, an increasing
threat for significant severe-wind gusts (possibly in the 70-85 mph
range) could begin spreading east/northeastward later tonight. Watch
issuance is likely by 03Z due to the increasing hail and severe-wind
potential.
..Dean/Hart.. 04/10/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…HGX…CRP…EWX…BRO…
LAT…LON 28020041 29839871 29859764 29819654 29479637 29159619
28659594 26889742 26689838 26649916 26729941 27079969
28020041
