MD 0410 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Areas affected…Central MS
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 101001Z – 101200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated damaging gusts and potentially a brief tornado
are possible across central Mississippi over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION…Convective line stretching from northern MS
southwestward through central LA has shown a bit more forward
propagation over the past hour or so, as this portion of the line
becomes more perpendicular to the deep-layer shear vector. The
strongest updrafts within the line now exist over central MS, where
a few bowing segments currently exist. Recent VAD profile from KDGX
sample 220-225 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relatively helicity over the
past half hour, which matches well with a small maximum in 0-1 km
storm-relatively helicity in the same region on the mesoanalysis.
However, low-level stability persists across the region, with recent
mesoanalysis and forecast soundings estimating substantial
convective inhibition remains in place. Even so, a few damaging
gusts may still be able to reach the surface. Additionally, any
sustained mesovortex may be able to produce a brief tornado.
However, the low-level stability is expected to keep the overall
severe potential low, despite the favorable kinematics.
..Mosier/Smith.. 04/10/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…JAN…
LAT…LON 31509122 31869092 32329031 32948998 33468978 33678928
33478878 32948883 31818928 31488964 31399023 31509122
