MD 0419 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Areas affected…Eastern FL Panhandle into Northern FL and Far
Southeast GA
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 111054Z – 111300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated damaging gust and perhaps even a brief tornado
are possible from the eastern Florida Panhandle into Northern
Florida and Far Southeast Georgia over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION…Recent radar imagery shows a broken convective line
extending from south-central GA southwestward through the far
eastern FL Panhandle into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. A few
stronger updrafts have been noted within the line, particularly with
the cell now over Taylor County. Recent mesoanalysis and forecast
soundings suggest that low-level stability remains in place for now,
which will likely limit the overall severe potential in the near
term. Even so, strong winds are in place (i.e. 50 kt was sampled at
1 km AGL at KVAX), and a few downdrafts may able to penetrate the
low-level stable layer.
Additional low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the
line, contributing to airmass destabilization and a greater
potential for surface-based storms, particularly over western
portions of northern FL (in the vicinity of CTY). Isolated damaging
gust and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible over the next few
hours.
..Mosier/Smith.. 04/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TBW…JAX…TAE…
LAT…LON 29958395 30688328 30898245 30328176 29258286 29588359
29958395
