MD 0427 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA…SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Areas affected…Northeast North Carolina…Southeast Virginia
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 120336Z – 120600Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…An isolated severe threat may continue for a few more
hours across parts of northeastern North Carolina and southeast
Virginia. The threat should be too marginal for weather watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION…An upper-level trough is currently moving through the
southern Appalachians according to water vapor imagery. Ahead of the
trough, the RAP is analyzing a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet from
eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia. Thunderstorms are
developing to the west of the low-level jet in a strongly sheared
environment, where 0-6 km shear is 50 to 60 knots and 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity is around 350 m2/s2, according to the
Raleigh WSR-88D VWP. This should support an isolated tornado threat
with low-topped supercells. An isolated wind-damage threat will also
be possible. However, the storms will continue to move northeastward
toward the coast where instability is considerably weaker. The
boundary layer will also continue to cool contributing to a more
stable airmass. This should result in a severe threat becoming more
marginal with time.
..Broyles/Thompson.. 04/12/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…AKQ…MHX…RAH…
LAT…LON 36957584 37187643 36857723 36257799 35827838 35587837
35397817 35307780 35397698 35757626 36067583 36437566
36957584
