MD 0043 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
Areas affected...portions of south into southeast and eastern Texas
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 210400Z - 210800Z
SUMMARY...Wintry precipitation rates should increase through tonight
across southeastern portions of Texas, with sleet and freezing rain
accumulations likely to continue.
DISCUSSION...700 mb WAA continues to increase atop a sub-freezing
airmass over southeastern TX as a positively tilted mid-level trough
glances the region to the north. Meanwhile, the dry low-levels
support wet-bulb temperatures well below freezing given ample
evaporative cooling/sublimation potential. Over the next couple of
hours, continued cooling of the surface-850 mb layer, due to both
925 mb CAA and evaporative cooling, should support an increased
potential for wintry precipitation (as evident based on recent
reports of ice accretion and sleet accumulations).
The greatest near-term potential for freezing rain/ice accretion
will be along a zone roughly from Wilson to Tyler Counties, where
surface observations show surface temperatures already cooled below
32 F. Latest high-resolution guidance shows sleet/freezing rates
peaking sometime after 06Z, including over portions of deep-south
TX. With time, at least moderate snowfall rates may eventually be
observed closer to the southeast TX coastline.
..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28789686 27639811 27479862 28629842 29729812 30359727
30899592 31199473 31259398 30999377 30489386 29879437
29819506 28789686
