MD 0432 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024
Areas affected…Southeast North Carolina
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 122256Z – 130100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Weak convection will pose a damaging wind risk over the
next 1-2 hours as storms approach the southeastern North Carolina
coast. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Weak, shallow convection migrating eastward across
southern NC has persisted over the past 1-2 hours despite a very
marginal thermodynamic environment (MLCAPE generally near 250 J/kg
or less per recent mesoanalyses and forecast soundings). This
persistence is likely attributable to lift ahead of a subtle
vorticity maximum. Despite the poor buoyancy, low-level warming has
resulted in steep boundary-layer lapse rates up to 7-8 C/km, which
is facilitating downward transfer of stronger mid-level flow.
Surface observations have reported isolated severe winds (59 mph was
recently measured at KFAY), with more frequent gusts around 35-50
mph. While severe winds will likely be confined to very narrow
swaths, the relatively more widespread 35-50 mph winds will pose a
wind damage risk. The onset of nocturnal cooling in the coming hours
will further limit convective intensity and should hinder efficient
mixing, but favorable forcing for ascent may maintain poorly
organized convection (and associated damaging wind threat) to the NC
coast.
..Moore/Thompson.. 04/12/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MHX…RAH…ILM…
LAT…LON 34377914 34667927 34977919 35247862 35497776 35557718
35517645 35307620 35117641 34847676 34567724 34347762
34147791 34107814 34287895 34377914
