SPC MD 44

SPC MD 44

MD 0044 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK

MD 0044 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
Areas affected...portions of far western New York
Concerning...Heavy snow 
Valid 210416Z - 210815Z
SUMMARY...Heavy lake-effect snow should continue into the early
morning hours, with 3 inch/hour intermittent snowfall rates likely.
DISCUSSION...The lake-effect snow-band has taken a more
southwest-to-northeast orientation over the past hour or so, with
heavy snow recently reported as far south as the Dunkirk Airport.
04Z mesoanalysis shows increased boundary-layer convergence and
moistening along a northern Chautaugua to Erie County line, which
will support continued heavy snowfall rates within the main band.
Snowfall accumulations over very short time periods via reports
suggest that near 3 inch/hour snowfall rates may be occurring with
this snow band. With the 04Z mesoanalysis showing 7.5 C/km 0-3 km
lapse rates present over water (where a long moisture fetch is in
place), 2-3 inch/hour snowfall rates may continue into the early
morning hours, as also suggested by latest high-resolution guidance
consensus.
..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...
LAT...LON   42467965 42677916 42857882 42937844 42827827 42577845
            42407890 42337923 42357944 42357954 42467965 

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