MD 0448 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Areas affected…parts of western/central Kansas into south central
Nebraska
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 160013Z – 160245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Rapid thunderstorm development and intensification appears
probable at some point this evening, most likely by 10 PM-Midnight,
but perhaps an hour or two earlier. Once storms form, a few
supercells are likely posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes, a
couple of which could become strong. Trends are closely being
monitored for a watch issuance, which seems likely at some point,
though timing remains a bit unclear.
DISCUSSION…A significant mid-level trough and embedded low are in
the process of overspreading the the southern Rockies, with the
leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls beginning to impact
the high plains from the Texas Panhandle through the Black Hills
vicinity. As intensifying southwesterly mid-level flow (in excess
of 90 kt around 500 mb) noses across the Texas Panhandle vicinity
through 02-04Z, strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent likely
will increasingly interact with a retreating dryline across western
Kansas.
As boundary-layer moisture, characterized by dew points increasing
as high as the lower/mid 60s, advects westward beneath steepening
lapse rates aided by cooling aloft, forecast soundings suggest
mixed-layer CAPE may increase in excess of 2000 J/kg within at least
a narrow corridor. By mid to late evening, it appears that this
will roughly become focused along an axis from near Dodge City KS
into areas west of Kearney NE.
Some increase in high based convective development is already
evident to the west of the dryline across the Texas Panhandle into
western Kansas. While guidance has generally been suggestive that
more substantive convective development and thunderstorm initiation
may not commence until closer to the 03-05Z time frame, it is not
certain that this will not occur sooner. Of primary concern, once
storms initiate, intensification may be rapid and include at least
one or two supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes, as
boundary-layer moistening and destabilization coincide with
enlarging clockwise-curved hodographs beneath southerly 850 mb flow
strengthening in excess of 50 kt.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/16/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ICT…GID…DDC…GLD…
LAT…LON 37830081 39880027 40579936 39959859 37869899 37019987
37090065 37830081
