MD 0050 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN LA…SOUTHEAST AR…SOUTHWEST TN…CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024
Areas affected…Northern LA…Southeast AR…Southwest
TN…central/northern MS
Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely
Valid 120933Z – 121100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent
SUMMARY…Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 4 AM CST, as storms
begin to approach the region from the west.
DISCUSSION…As a powerful mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across the southern Plains early this morning, ongoing convection
near the ArkLaTex region is expected to accelerate eastward. A
surface cyclone is expected to consolidate later this morning near
the ArkLaMiss area and then rapidly intensify as a 100+ kt midlevel
jet impinges upon the region. As this occurs, 60s F dewpoints are
expected to advance as far as northern MS, accompanied by an
increase in MLCAPE to near 500 J/kg in areas that are currently
rather cool/stable.
While there will be some tendency for convection to eventually
outpace low-level moisture return, organized convection is expected
to reach parts of northern/central MS and perhaps southwest TN later
this morning. Low-level flow/shear is already strong (as noted on
regional VWPs), and a further increase is expected with time as 1-3
km AGL flow strengthens into the 60-80 kt range. The fast-moving
convective line within this favorable kinematic environment will
pose a threat for severe gusts (potentially in excess of 65 kt) and
some potential for line-embedded tornadoes.
With upstream WW 9 scheduled to expire at 4 AM CST, new tornado
watch issuance across the region is likely soon.
..Dean/Edwards.. 01/12/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MEG…JAN…LZK…SHV…
LAT…LON 31979310 33799143 34909073 35199038 35308906 35078833
34808823 34278826 33778834 32588856 32258973 32109217
31979310
