SPC MD 51

SPC MD 51

MD 0051 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN IL…SOUTHERN WI…EASTERN IA

Mesoscale Discussion 0051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Areas affected…Northern IL…Southern WI…Eastern IA

Concerning…Heavy snow

Valid 121023Z – 121430Z

SUMMARY…Snow rates of 1+ inch per hour will spread northward this
morning.

DISCUSSION…At 1015 UTC, a broad region of moderate precipitation
is ongoing within the warm conveyor belt of a deepening cyclone
currently centered near the Ozark Plateau. Within this region, an
area of locally heavier precipitation is noted from eastern IA into
northern IL, where some enhancement is likely being provided by a
midlevel shortwave trough that is moving across southern IL in
advance of the primary shortwave across the central/southern Plains.

Some increase in moderate to heavy snow observations has been noted
over the last hour across northwest/north-central IL, and this trend
is likely to continue as heavier precipitation spreads into
northeast IL and southern WI. Favorable moistening and ascent within
a deep layer (including the dendritic growth zone) will support snow
rates of 1+ inch per hour for at least a few hours this morning.

Continued strong low-level warm advection will eventually result in
a snow-to-rain transition along the southern periphery of the
ongoing precipitation shield, with the rain/snow line expected to
gradually advance northward into parts of northern IL later this
morning.

..Dean.. 01/12/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…LOT…ILX…MKX…DVN…ARX…

LAT…LON 42928774 42298769 41908757 41638752 41418749 41158750
41068777 41168948 41229053 41269132 41499156 42109160
43069064 43208884 42928774

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