MD 0516 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 134… FOR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE…CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE…AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Areas affected…northern Texas Panhandle…central Oklahoma
Panhandle…and southwestern Kansas
Concerning…Tornado Watch 134…
Valid 260042Z – 260245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 134 continues.
SUMMARY…Severe threat continues across WW134. Additional
thunderstorm development possible over the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION…Visible satellite imagery across the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles continues to show areas of towering cumulus clustered
along the dryline. Thus far, attempts at initiation have been
unsuccessful. The 00z RAOB from AMA indicates MLCIN has eroded amid
steep lapse rates throughout the profile. Given the increase
expected in the low-level jet through the next couple of hours and
additional synoptic forcing for ascent, further scattered
thunderstorm development will be possible. Recent CAM guidance
supports this notion, though there are difference in timing/location
of initiation within this region. Surface objective analysis
indicates around 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE with deep layer shear at
50-55 kts. Given initially modest forcing and south-southwesterly
deep layer flow, storms will initiate along the dryline before
moving north eastward with the initial threat of large hail and
damaging winds. Any cells that maintain strength through the evening
will see an increasing threat for tornadoes as the low-level jet
increases enlarging hodographs and increasing low-level shear.
..Thornton/Edwards.. 04/26/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DDC…GLD…AMA…PUB…
LAT…LON 36280226 36760226 37170218 37470207 37840191 38240164
38550134 38680089 38719994 38449986 37700008 37040024
36360056 36010089 35640140 35650152 35560180 35510206
35600217 35650240 36280226
