SPC MD 52

SPC MD 52

MD 0052 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 10… FOR EASTERN AR…NORTHWEST MS…EXTREME SOUTHWEST TN…EXTREME NORTHEAST LA

Mesoscale Discussion 0052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Areas affected…Eastern AR…Northwest MS…Extreme southwest
TN…Extreme northeast LA

Concerning…Tornado Watch 10…

Valid 121214Z – 121345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.

SUMMARY…The threat for 70-80 mph winds and a couple tornadoes will
continue through sunrise.

DISCUSSION…A fast-moving convective line has recently increased in
organization across eastern AR, with several mesovortices noted
along the leading edge of the line. Shortly after 1130 UTC, 64-kt
and 63-kt gusts were noted at Pine Bluff (KPBF) and Stuttgart, AR
(KSGT), respectively, as the line moved through those observing
sites. Very strong low/midlevel flow in advance of a powerful
shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains will continue to
support severe-gust potential (with 65+ kt gusts possible) as this
convective line moves quickly eastward toward northwest MS and
extreme southwest TN. A couple brief line-embedded tornadoes will
also be possible. The northward extent of the severe threat will be
limited by increasingly cool/stable near-surface conditions, though
some severe-gust potential could extend into regions were convection
remains somewhat elevated.

In advance of the convective line described above, semi-discrete
storms have intensified from northeast LA/southeast AR into
northwest MS. It remains uncertain regarding whether supercells can
mature within the weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment
across this region, but very strong low-level shear/SRH (as noted on
regional VWPs) will support a conditional tornado risk with any
sustained supercell ahead of the primary convective line this
morning.

..Dean.. 01/12/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…MEG…JAN…LZK…SHV…

LAT…LON 35409093 35459031 35399001 35038985 34458984 33938989
32779082 32609111 32609161 32619201 32789212 33029209
33169200 33349191 33509187 33879165 34379143 35409093

Read more

Read More