MD 0533 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR CENTRAL TEXAS…SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…ARKLATEX
Mesoscale Discussion 0533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Areas affected…central Texas…southeastern Oklahoma…Arklatex
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch needed soon
Valid 262213Z – 262345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent
SUMMARY…The severe threat will likely continue past 23z. New
weather watch will be needed to replace WW139 soon.
DISCUSSION…A cluster of storms is ongoing from Forreston, TX to
Sulphur Springs, TX. These storms have produced reports of hail with
transient rotation embedded with the line. This complex has modified
the airmass, which is apparent in surface observations and visible
satellite. This cluster will likely continue to maintain severe
intensity with potential for damaging wind, hail, and a tornado as
it moves northeastward within the core of the low-level jet into the
Arklatex region.
Further west along a surface dryline, agitated cu can be observed
with potential for new thunderstorm development in the next couple
of hours. Given the modified airmass to the north and northeast of
ongoing convection, the best potential for new development of strong
thunderstorms will be along the southwestern fringe of WW139. This
area will become increasingly displaced from the low-level jet
through the evening, but will still reside in a region of unstable
air, amid steep lapse rates and strong deep layer shear. These
storms will be capable of very large hail and damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado. A new weather watch will be needed to encompass
this threat soon.
..Thornton/Edwards.. 04/26/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LZK…SHV…TSA…HGX…FWD…OUN…EWX…SJT…
LAT…LON 31219903 31509891 32459791 33379736 33529719 33669673
33759634 34159474 34169465 34519415 34479377 34389334
34149325 33619340 33359363 32979402 32379430 32079467
31819511 31259607 30899679 30769721 30639779 30609812
30709881 30929906 31219903
