MD 0059 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN GEORGIA…EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024
Areas affected…Eastern Georgia…Eastern South Carolina and
eastern North Carolina
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 130027Z – 130300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A marginal severe threat may develop across parts of far
eastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina
over the next 1 to 2 hours. No weather watch issuance is expected.
DISCUSSION…The latest radar imagery shows a band of convection
oriented from south-southwest to north-northeast from southern
Georgia to central North Carolina. This convection is located along
the northern edge of a weakly unstable airmass, where the RAP is
analyzing MLCAPE below 500 J/kg. In spite of the weak instability,
moisture advection will occur across the eastern Carolinas over the
next couple of hours, which will result in a gradually increase in
instability. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs in the eastern
Carolinas have very strong deep-layer shear, associated with the
eastern edge of a broad mid-level jet. For this reason, there will
be potential for weakly organized rotating storms. Although a weak
tornado or strong wind gust will be possible, the threat should
remain isolated as the upper-level system over the Northeast pulls
away from the region.
..Broyles/Goss.. 01/13/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…AKQ…MHX…RAH…ILM…CHS…CAE…
LAT…LON 32987960 33807852 34557718 35057642 35467626 35817655
35927717 35697769 34877907 33278130 32628187 32228190
31918151 32028085 32987960
