MD 0611 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OK INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024
Areas affected…Central and East-Central OK into Far West-Central
AR
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 030434Z – 030630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible for the next
few hours across central and east-central Oklahoma.
DISCUSSION…The combination of modest ascent along a
southward-moving cold front and weak warm-air advection has lead to
the increase in predominantly multicellular thunderstorm across
central and east-central OK. Deep-layer vertical shear is modest,
which is expected to keep updraft organization minimal. Even so,
relatively cold mid-level temperatures, helping support max lapse
rates in the 2-6 km layer around 7 deg C per km. These are steep
enough to support moderate buoyancy and the potential for a few
updrafts strong enough to produce small hail. Elevated character to
most of the storms should limit the wind gusts threat, but
interaction with the front and/or with other storms could lead to a
few stronger gusts (as recently observed with the storm over Wagoner
and Cherokee Counties).
..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/03/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LZK…SHV…TSA…OUN…
LAT…LON 34699640 35399761 35909713 36189602 35789415 34819427
34489471 34489562 34699640
