MD 0612 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0612
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Areas affected…East/Southeast Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 030923Z – 031200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail and
strong gusts are expected across parts of east Texas over the next
few hours. The threat should remain marginal, and weather watch
issuance appears unlikely.
DISCUSSION…The latest high-resolution radar from Houston shows a
cluster of strong thunderstorms over east Texas. The storms are
developing in response to a large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave
trough, evident on water vapor imagery. RAP forecast soundings near
the ongoing storms in east Texas early this morning have a low-level
temperature inversion, with MUCAPE above the inversion generally
around 1500 J/kg. Effective shear is in the 45 to 50 knot range, and
700-500 mb lapse rates are between 7.0 and 7.5 C/km. This
environment will support elevated storms with isolated large-hail
potential. The severe threat is expected to move into far east Texas
by daybreak, but should remain too marginal for watch issuance.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/03/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LCH…SHV…HGX…FWD…
LAT…LON 29629577 29399562 29229534 29219497 29659405 29959378
30669363 31079360 31569371 31919395 32199425 32179499
31929531 31189558 30519569 29909583 29629577
