MD 0614 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO…EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS…WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Areas affected…The high plains of northeast New Mexico and
southeast Colorado…extreme southwest Kansas…western Oklahoma
Panhandle
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 031919Z – 032045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms will continue to develop over the high
plains of southeastern CO and northeastern NM through this
afternoon. Hail near 1-1.25 inches in diameter, wind gusts of 55 to
70 mph, and perhaps a landspout or two will be possible.
DISCUSSION…Surface mass/moisture convergence and insolation has
increased near the Raton Mesa this afternoon leading to the
development of moist convection. This area is also beneath the right
entrance region of a mid level jet max now progressing ENE over
northwestern KS. Both recent visible satellite imagery and radar
indicate a few stronger updrafts continue to persist on the NM side,
where moisture advection has led to dewpoints increasing into the
upper 40s to low 50s. The environment is also characterized by
increasing MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and effective shear
magnitudes around 30 kts. Although not particularly favorable for
supercell development, this environment could support a few
organized updrafts capable of marginally severe hail and damaging
wind gusts. The latter may be especially true across CO where
inverted V profiles will persist longer. In addition, low level CAPE
is also increasing across this region and should expand northward
over the next 1-2 hours, aiding in enhanced stretching which could
support a landspout or two.
..Barnes/Squitieri/Smith.. 05/03/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DDC…GLD…AMA…PUB…ABQ…
LAT…LON 37030152 36590257 35920413 35890511 36480522 36980498
37960478 38500375 38540260 38290186 37860143 37490140
37030152
