MD 0620 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Areas affected…western North Texas into adjacent southwestern
Oklahoma
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 040027Z – 040230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Ongoing convection across North Texas — from west of
Childress to the Wichita Falls/Jacksboro/Mineral Wells vicinity —
may expand in coverage/intensity over the next couple of hours. New
WW issuance could become necessary, if convection can organize
further.
DISCUSSION…A cluster of northeastward-moving storms west of
Childress will soon exit Tornado Watch 178. Some model signal is
evident that the storms could persist — and even grow upscale a bit
— over the next couple of hours. The currently observed
environment — mixed-layer CAPE near or exceeding 3000 J/kg — would
certainly support this potential. While shear remains somewhat
modest, veering winds with height are providing ample shear for
mid-level updraft rotation. Additionally, other storms from near
Wichita Falls south to near Mineral Wells — within generally the
same background environment — have also maintained intensity.
We will continue to monitor convective evolution in the short term.
Signs of increased coverage or upscale growth of this convection
could warrant WW consideration.
..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…OUN…SJT…LUB…AMA…
LAT…LON 34120118 34810004 35129893 34949794 34469706 33629674
32589790 32609850 34120118
