MD 0623 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA…CENTRAL KANSAS…SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Areas affected…Portions of northwest Oklahoma…central
Kansas…southeast Nebraska
Concerning…Severe potential…Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 040226Z – 040430Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…The environment should remain supportive of large hail and
severe wind gusts over the next few hours. A low-end tornado threat
will also exist, particularly for remaining discrete storms. A new
severe thunderstorm watch is likely.
DISCUSSION…Convection within the central/southern Plains continues
to move eastward this evening. Regional VAD wind show and increase
in the low-level jet (40-50 kts). Along with the low-level jet, 60+
F dewpoints and observed steep mid-level lapse rates will continue
to support some threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.
Low-level hodograph curvature is evident on VAD wind profiles as
well. Some tornado threat will exist, though the primarily linear
storm mode should limit a greater threat. A new severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be needed for at least parts of areas from
northwest Oklahoma into southeast Nebraska.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/04/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OAX…TOP…ICT…OUN…GID…DDC…AMA…
LAT…LON 39759800 40359737 40629696 40469657 39489649 38579701
37399791 35949880 35549936 35419993 36060004 37129925
38239881 39759800
