MD 0064 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024
Areas affected…Upstate New York
Concerning…Heavy snow
Valid 142049Z – 150045Z
SUMMARY…The onset of heavy snowfall rates up to (and possibly
exceeding) two inches per hour is anticipated in the next few hours
for the northeast shore of Lake Ontario. A heavy lake-effect snow
band emanating off Lake Erie should continue into the early evening.
DISCUSSION…Regional radar trends over the past hour have shown the
development of a more persistent lake-effect snow band in the
Watertown, NY vicinity. Additionally, low-level confluence over Lake
Ontario may be increasing based on trends in the shallow convective
streaks in GOES visible imagery. High-res model guidance has hinted
in the development of a more persistent lake-effect band beginning
during the 21-00 UTC period over the past several model runs. The
aforementioned observed trends lend confidence to this forecast and
suggest the onset may be closer to the 21-23 UTC period. Upstream,
lake-effect bands coming off of Lake Erie have resulted in snowfall
rates up to 2 in/hour. Given similar thermodynamic profiles aloft
and warmer water temperatures (6 C vs. 4 C), similar, if not higher,
snowfall rates are expected.
To the southwest, a persistent lake-effect band to the south of
Buffalo, NY is expected to persist into the evening hours. As
mentioned, snowfall rates up to 2 in/hour have been observed, and
strong low-level confluence over Lake Erie is noted in recent
surface observations. Guidance hints at a gradual weakening of this
band after the 00 UTC time frame.
..Moore.. 01/14/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…BTV…ALY…BGM…BUF…
LAT…LON 43837636 44047626 44267527 44277493 44157463 44057453
43777450 43587463 43497483 43557597 43627624 43737632
43837636
