MD 0655 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 189… FOR NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024
Areas affected…Northwest OK
Concerning…Tornado Watch 189…
Valid 062035Z – 062130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189 continues.
SUMMARY…Initial supercell development across northwest Oklahoma
will pose a primary near-term risk for large to very large hail.
Tornado threat should increase rapidly towards 5 to 6 pm.
DISCUSSION…Most prominent convective development on the dryline
south of KS has been in the Ellis county vicinity of northwest OK.
Additional cells should form farther south towards I-40 based on the
agitated CU field noted in the southeast TX Panhandle. These cells
will likely evolve into long-track supercells as they mature with a
primary initial threat of large to very large hail. OK-Mesonet
surface observations confirm the leading edge of upper 60s dew
points are along a line from roughly Tipton to Lahoma. As these
cells impinge on the greater low-level buoyancy and stronger
low-level shear over central OK (per comparison of FDR/TLX/VNX VWP
data), potential for tornadoes will increase substantially during
the early evening. This scenario is supported by recent WoFS
guidance.
..Grams.. 05/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OUN…
LAT…LON 36819942 36909870 36869813 36739779 36519757 35839780
35489829 35399884 35339934 35389980 35849993 36359966
36819942
