MD 0066 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EAST TX…NORTHWEST LA…SOUTHERN AR…AND NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024
Areas affected…East TX…northwest LA…southern AR…and northern
MS
Concerning…Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 150048Z – 150545Z
SUMMARY…An increase in winter mixed precipitation is expected from
portions of east TX east-northeastward into northern MS over the
next few hours.
DISCUSSION…Over the next few hours, a band of low-level
frontogenesis extending from northeast TX through southern AR into
northern MS is expected to strengthen in response to increasing
low-level confluence. Along/south of this feature, the ascending
branch of the frontogenetic circulation and steady low-level warm
advection should support an increase in precipitation over the next
few hours. Radar echoes are gradually increasing across this
corridor amid cooling cloud tops.
Forecast soundings generally depict a 2-4 deg C warm nose just below
850 mb atop a substantial sub-freezing layer (surface temperatures
in the upper teens to lower/middle 20s). These profiles should
support a mix of sleet and freezing rain across much of the area,
with the primary precipitation type expected to transition to sleet
given an ample low-level sub-freezing layer and nocturnally cooling
surface temperatures. The one exception may be over the southern
portions of the discussion area (east-central TX into western LA),
where a 4-6 deg C warm nose atop a shallower sub-freezing layer may
favor increasing hydrometeor melting and freezing rain.
Nevertheless, the potential for impacts from the mixed winter
precipitation should gradually increase in the 02-06Z time frame.
..Weinman.. 01/15/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MEG…JAN…LZK…LCH…SHV…HGX…FWD…
LAT…LON 30979415 30739472 30989525 31289558 32249571 32979551
33579493 33939418 34319227 34729040 34898949 34918850
34768829 34338823 34068862 33528961 32719140 31969268
30979415
