MD 0661 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024
Areas affected…Portions of western/central Iowa
Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely
Valid 062318Z – 070115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Storms will move east-northeast out of Nebraska into
western and eventually parts of central Iowa. Damaging winds and
QLCS tornadoes will be possible.
DISCUSSION…Aided my the mid-level shortwave trough, a line of
convection continues to the east-northeast in eastern Nebraska. This
will likely continue into parts of western into central Iowa this
evening. Dewpoints have risen into the low 60s F in the mid-Missouri
Valley. Though overall destabilization has not been robust due to
cloud cover, the upper-level forcing and continued moisture
advection should promote some severe threat. Regional VAD profiles
from KFSD/KOAX/KDMX show ample low-level shear in place. This shear
should remain and increase as the low-level jet intensifies and
moves east. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes will be possible. A
tornado watch will likely be needed this evening. The primary
uncertainty will be how far north/northwest the severe threat will
be.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DMX…FSD…OAX…
LAT…LON 40689462 41629511 42709641 42939647 43299620 43299572
42619440 40629387 40689462
