MD 0680 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MI…EASTERN IN…WESTERN OH…FAR NORTHERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024
Areas affected…southern Lower MI…eastern IN…western OH…far
northern KY
Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely
Valid 072033Z – 072200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…As supercells spread quickly east-northeast from southern
Lower MI and northwest IN, an additional tornado watch/watches will
be needed prior to 22Z. This may also include a combined/separate
watch farther south in eastern IN/western OH ahead of supercells
intensifying over the Wabash Valley.
DISCUSSION…As mentioned in MCD 0679, an increasingly favorable
setup for supercells, a couple of which may be long-tracked, is
underway across northwest IN to the Wabash Valley. The northern
storms may being to outpace the rapid boundary-layer
warming/moistening that is occurring across northeast IN and
northwest OH into southern Lower MI. Nevertheless, the intense
mid-level jet will likely foster sustained supercells even as they
become slightly elevated towards southeast Lower MI. With backed
low-level flow and ample low-level shear (per IWX VWP data), the
tornado threat will remain prominent with any supercells along and
south of the surface warm front. A couple strong tornadoes are
possible.
..Grams/Smith.. 05/07/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…CLE…JKL…ILN…DTX…LMK…IWX…GRR…IND…
LAT…LON 42758544 42698458 41898367 41398340 40538329 38478394
38308491 38688589 41048526 42758544
