
MD 0070 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western/central Tennessee and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061921Z - 062145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity across Tennessee this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...While synoptic forcing is limited across the area, some vertical ascent is apparent in visible imagery across southeastern Missouri, leading to multiple instances of convective initiation. Deep-layer shear (around 50 knots per mesoanalysis) is sufficient to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Long, straight hodographs will also be supportive of storm splits, as evidenced by the initial storm evolution in northwestern Tennessee. The limiting factor to a more robust severe threat is the marginal instability (currently around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE). Low-level clouds have been persistent across much of western/central Tennessee slowing destabilization across the area. Nevertheless, with some additional clearing/heating, storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity, especially over northern-middle Tennessee later this afternoon and evening, posing an all-hazards severe weather risk. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch. ..Jirak/Hart.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36188936 36698938 36948914 36828849 36748776 36698733 36658659 36808372 36158369 35438528 35248595 35148693 35248803 35318879 35508932 36188936