MD 0752 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Areas affected…Portions of central New Mexico
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 111858Z – 112100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Storms within the higher terrain of central New Mexico may
produce large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a brief
tornado. A watch is not anticipated this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Mid-level ascent is increasing this afternoon across
portions of central New Mexico. Despite dewpoints in the 40s F, this
has allowed convection to develop on the higher terrain. A few
low-topped storms are possible this afternoon. Long hodographs and
around -17 C temperatures at 500 mb should promote some risk for
large hail. These storms will progress northeastward, but will
encounter a more stable environment at lower elevations. That said,
storms may peak in intensity over the next 1-2 hours. A storm west
of Los Alamos did show some signs of stronger low-level rotation in
the last 30 minutes. The KABX VAD profile has modest low-level
turning. The tornado threat will be tempered by the limited spatial
extent of a favorable environment and generally marginally intense
storms, but a brief tornado is at least possible.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ABQ…
LAT…LON 34980722 36020720 36410666 36200577 35550545 34660518
34190554 34220613 34980722
