MD 0756 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232… FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0756
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Areas affected…Portions of East Texas and Upper Texas Gulf Coast
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232…
Valid 121549Z – 121745Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232
continues.
SUMMARY…Large hail up to 2 inches remains possible with the
strongest storms in WW 232. Additional storms may develop south of
the watch and would pose a greater tornado threat as they are near
the surface warm front.
DISCUSSION…The potential for large hail will continue in WW 232,
particularly in northern portions of the watch where two ongoing
supercell structures exist. The storm currently north of College
Station has produced 2 inch hail in the last 90 minutes. As the warm
front continues to lift slowly northward, convection has begun to
develop near Houston. This convection has so far remained weak, but
has shown some marginal supercell characteristics in the last 30
minutes. There is some potential for these storms to mature, though
timing remains uncertain. Given their proximity to the warm front,
they have a greater probability to be or soon be surface based. That
said, tornado potential would be greater than storms farther north.
Convective trends will need to be monitored in the next few hours.
Either local expansion of WW 232 or perhaps a new watch may become
necessary depending on convective evolution and the primary expected
hazard.
..Wendt.. 05/12/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LCH…SHV…HGX…FWD…
LAT…LON 29619655 29979652 30209653 30889666 31189656 31329625
31459507 31469448 31339435 30689432 29959417 29739416
29529471 29309584 29369636 29619655
