MD 0766 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0766
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected…Portions of south-central TX
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235…
Valid 131645Z – 131815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235
continues.
SUMMARY…A threat for very large hail will continue with ongoing
supercells. Severe/damaging winds should become an increasing
concern this afternoon as convection attempts to grow upscale into a
bowing cluster.
DISCUSSION…An intense supercell is ongoing to the south of the San
Antonio TX metro as of 1635Z. With extreme instability present
(4000+ J/kg MUCAPE), along with strong deep-layer shear of 45-50 kt,
a supercell mode will likely be maintained in the short term. Steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on area 12Z soundings from DRT/CRP/BRO
will aid robust updraft accelerations and a threat for large to very
large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. To the north
of this supercell into central TX, destructive updraft
interference/interactions have occurred, with a messier storm mode
observed and a lesser threat for large hail. With time, expectations
are for convection to gradually grow upscale into a small bowing
cluster as activity continues eastward through the afternoon. A
greater threat for severe/damaging winds of 60-70 mph should exist
once this mode transition occurs.
..Gleason.. 05/13/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…CRP…EWX…
LAT…LON 29369992 29849930 29949802 29829692 29259685 28799707
28559734 28679902 28679989 28990016 29369992
