MD 0784 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Areas affected…portions of southern South Dakota into northern
Nebraska
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 142153Z – 142300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Storms should continue with an isolated severe wind and
hail threat through the afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Clusters of thunderstorms have been maturing into
multicells and transient supercells over the past couple of hours
along the SD/NE border. Ahead of these storms, temperatures have
warmed to around 80 F amid upper 40s F dewpoints (locally higher
along a surface boundary), supporting around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (per
latest mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings). Deep-layer shear is
relatively weak, but steep tropospheric lapse rates suggest that
isolated instances of severe hail and wind may accompany the
stronger updrafts, particularly with any sustained supercell
structures this afternoon and evening. Given the isolated nature of
the severe threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FSD…ABR…LBF…UNR…CYS…
LAT…LON 42690338 43590235 44180122 44180039 43799962 42999880
42669868 42239888 41749959 41410018 41640072 42060141
42360235 42690338
