MD 0785 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0785
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Areas affected…portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 142207Z – 142330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated severe gusts are possible through the afternoon,
and an instance or two of marginally severe hail cannot be ruled
out. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Pulse cellular and multicellular storms have been
percolating in intensity across portions of eastern CO into western
KS. These storms are overspreading a deep boundary layer with large
rainwater evaporation potential, with surface temperatures
approaching 90 F amid low 40s dewpoints. Given the 40-50 F spreads
and inverted-v vertical thermodynamic profiles extending to nearly
500 mb, the ongoing storms should be high-based. 21Z mesoanalysis
shows 9.5-10 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates within the boundary layer,
suggesting that rainfall evaporation will support enough downward
momentum transport to potentially produce a couple of severe gusts.
One of the heavier/wetter storm cores may also contain some hail.
Nonetheless, the severe threat should be isolated and a WW issuance
is unlikely.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DDC…GLD…AMA…PUB…BOU…ABQ…
LAT…LON 37890491 38880469 39610354 39960222 39870109 39210030
38319999 37670007 37050099 36820310 37330410 37890491
