MD 0790 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 243… FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0790
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Areas affected…Parts of central/north FL
Concerning…Tornado Watch 243…
Valid 151236Z – 151400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 243 continues.
SUMMARY…Some threat for a tornado or two, hail, and damaging wind
will persist through the morning. New watch issuance is possible
after WW 243 expires.
DISCUSSION…A notable uptick in storm coverage is ongoing this
morning across central FL. Most convection remains focused near a
weak surface boundary draped from near/north of Tampa to south of
Daytona Beach, but storm initiation is also underway south of this
corridor. The 10Z XMR and 12Z TBW soundings depict a very moist and
unstable environment, with dewpoints in the upper 70s F and MLCAPE
near or above 2500 J/kg. Pockets of diurnal heating will support
some additional destabilization and a potential increase in storm
intensity through the morning.
Moderate deep-layer shear within unidirectional southwesterly flow
aloft will support organized convection, including the potential for
a few supercells. Low-level shear/SRH is rather modest due to
generally veered surface winds, but any longer-lived supercell
within this very moist/unstable environment could pose some tornado
threat. Otherwise, a threat for large hail and locally damaging wind
will accompany the strongest storms.
While ongoing storms are largely confined to central FL, some
increase in storm coverage has been noted over the northeast Gulf of
Mexico, and additional development into north FL remains possible
later this morning. With the severe threat expected to persist
beyond the 15Z expiration time of WW 243, new watch issuance is
possible later this morning.
..Dean/Guyer.. 05/15/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MLB…TBW…JAX…TAE…
LAT…LON 26978276 27238337 29308368 29658305 30008086 29138022
28248022 27578065 27128169 27018218 26978276
