MD 0791 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NC/SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Areas affected…Portions of NC/SC
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 151610Z – 151815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…The threat for damaging winds and severe hail should
gradually increase this afternoon. Watch issuance will probably be
needed.
DISCUSSION…16Z surface observations show a front draped east-west
along and near the NC/SC border. Severe potential this afternoon
will probably remain focused along and south of this boundary, where
greater diurnal heating will occur. This heating of a moist
low-level airmass is already supporting weak to locally moderate
instability, with MLCAPE generally ranging 1000-2000 J/kg. A belt of
enhanced mid-level flow associated with a weak upper trough over the
OH/TN Valleys is present across the central into coastal Carolinas.
Around 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear is being estimated by latest
mesoanalysis, which may be a little high compared to recent VWPs
across this region. Still, sufficient effective bulk shear will be
present to support organized convection, including the potential for
a few supercells. Isolated large hail generally in the 1-1.75 inch
range will be possible with any persistent, discrete thunderstorms
that can track eastward through the afternoon. Occasional
severe/damaging winds of 55-70 mph also appear possible, especially
if convection can develop into one or more small bowing clusters.
This damaging wind potential may remain more focused along/near the
front. Given expectations for the overall hail/wind threat to
gradually increase through the afternoon, Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance will probably be needed.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/15/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MHX…RAH…ILM…CHS…CAE…GSP…
LAT…LON 33138031 33548139 34258204 35198189 35448134 35397978
35137816 34867717 34557701 33777794 33117926 33138031
