MD 0795 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0795
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Areas affected…western Oklahoma into south-central Kansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 152050Z – 152145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Watch possible this afternoon as large hail and damaging
wind threat increases.
DISCUSSION…A deepening cumulus field is observed on visible
satellite across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma,
as strong daytime heating has allowed temperatures to climb into the
mid 80s. Thunderstorm development is expected in the next couple of
hours along the edge of eroding mid-level capping near the OK/KS
border ahead of the surface front. Given MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg,
30-40 kts of deep layer shear, and elongated straight hodographs,
initial development will favor discrete supercells capable of very
large hail and damaging wind. Clustering of cells may occur through
mergers from splitting supercells and along developing outflow into
the evening, leading to increased potential in the damaging wind
threat into the evening. A watch may be needed in the next hour.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/15/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TOP…ICT…OUN…DDC…
LAT…LON 36609732 37809658 38219654 38509661 38789757 38749800
38539871 37909948 36949981 36879986 34779998 34539923
34949755 36609732
