MD 0800 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0800
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Areas affected…Parts of northwest into central TX
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 161128Z – 161330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…An increase in the severe wind/hail threat is possible
through the morning. Watch issuance is possible, though timing is
uncertain.
DISCUSSION…A long-lived storm cluster and its attendant cold pool
have begun propagating more to the southeast this morning across
northwest TX, with occasional strong to severe gusts noted along the
gust front. Meanwhile, rich low-level moisture currently confined to
from the Edwards Plateau region into central/south TX is expected to
quickly advect northward through the morning, aided by a southerly
low-level jet. This could eventually lead to renewed storm
development along and north of the southeastward-moving outflow, as
MUCAPE increases to near/above 2000 J/kg.
While convection through much of the morning will likely remain
somewhat elevated, gradually increasing midlevel flow in advance of
an approaching shortwave trough will support sufficient effective
shear for storm organization. An elevated supercell or two will be
possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe
gusts. Some additional upscale growth will be possible, with an MCS
potentially propagating southeastward along the instability gradient
later today.
A more substantial severe threat is expected later today across
parts of central TX. Onset/timing of the higher-end severe potential
remains somewhat uncertain, but watch issuance will become
increasingly possible through the morning.
..Dean/Guyer.. 05/16/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…HGX…FWD…EWX…SJT…MAF…
LAT…LON 32589723 31279645 30689639 30639743 30789872 30949953
31940068 32280084 32759964 33399894 33399815 32589723
