MD 0812 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0812
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Areas affected…South Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 171014Z – 171215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A cluster of thunderstorms — including a couple of
stronger/rotating updrafts — continues to evolve over South Texas.
Isolated instances of large hail can be expected, but isolated
nature of the risk should mitigate the need for WW issuance.
DISCUSSION…Latest radar loop shows clusters of storms moving
into/developing across portions of South Texas over the past couple
of hours, where ample instability is indicated atop a surface-based
stable layer. The development appears to be a result of weak warm
advection north of a cold front, which has now pushed south to the
lower Rio Grande Valley.
Strong mid-level southwesterly flow is contributing to ample
cloud-layer shear for updraft rotation within a few of the more
vigorous storms, and associated indications of hail exceeding severe
levels from time to time. Expect this trend to continue over the
next few hours, though with the overall coverage of the hail risk
currently expected to remain isolated enough so as to preclude the
need for WW issuance.
..Goss/Edwards.. 05/17/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…HGX…CRP…EWX…BRO…
LAT…LON 28070018 28609989 29109813 29229688 27949712 26939789
26629938 26999971 28070018
