MD 0814 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0814
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Areas affected…Southeast Montana into western North Dakota
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 171902Z – 172100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Storms will initially pose a threat of strong/severe wind
gusts. Storms will intensify as they move east into greater
moisture. Large hail will be possible as this occurs. A severe
thunderstorm watch is possible for parts of eastern Montana into
western/central North Dakota this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…A compact upper-level tough is moving through the
northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this feature
is evident in thunderstorm development near and northeast of the Big
Horns. Additional cumulus development is also occurring farther east
within a surface trough in western North Dakota. Storms that form
farther west near the synoptic cold front will exist in a fairly
well-mixed, low dewpoint environment. The strongest storms will be
capable of strong to marginally severe wind gusts. With time storms
will move into greater moisture in western/central North Dakota. As
this occurs, storm intensity should increase. Strong to severe gusts
will still remain possible, but greater moisture and a long,
straight hodograph should also promote some threat of marginally
severe hail (1-1.5 in.).
..Wendt/Hart.. 05/17/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…BIS…UNR…BYZ…GGW…
LAT…LON 45120384 44970485 45030668 45420686 45950652 46360558
47160456 48260349 48890298 48850103 47890082 46930091
45200337 45120384
