MD 0815 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA…AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0815
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Areas affected…southern Alabama into southwest Georgia…and parts
of the Florida Panhandle
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 171931Z – 172200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Storms will likely increase in coverage and intensity over
the next few hours, with damaging winds most likely. A brief tornado
or two will be possible.
DISCUSSION…Surface analysis shows a stationary front extending
roughly from far southern MS across the AL/FL border and toward the
GA/FL border. Observational trends currently indicate little change
in wind direction along the front, however, some northward
progression of the boundary is expected as southerly winds over 30
kt persist just off the surface.
The 18Z LIX sounding shows a very moist and unstable air mass with
PWAT over 2.00″ and SBCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer
westerly flow exists as well with around 50 kt at 500 mb.
Latest radar trends show convection increasing along the stationary
front from southern MS into southern AL. Echo tops are gradually
increasing, and this trend should continue, especially with cells
near or just on the warm side of the boundary.
Given moderate westerly flow and favorable deep layer shear, a few
bowing structures are anticipated, producing damaging winds.
Enhanced shear along the east-west oriented front may support
storm-scale rotation with a brief tornado or two possible through
early evening as cells evolve east.
..Jewell/Hart.. 05/17/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FFC…TAE…BMX…MOB…
LAT…LON 30938835 31268789 31558723 31788463 31898355 31528317
30638331 30278371 30388569 30408725 30328774 30438833
30688837 30938835
