MD 0817 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 254… FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Areas affected…Southern Alabama and the Florida Peninsula
Concerning…Tornado Watch 254…
Valid 172232Z – 180000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 254 continues.
SUMMARY…A few severe thunderstorms are expected to persist through
the evening with a threat for all severe hazards.
DISCUSSION…A cluster of storms with embedded supercell structures
continues to move east along the Alabama/Florida border. The EVX VWP
shows around 300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH with a 35 to 40 knot low-level
jet. This strengthening low-level flow is also resulting in
additional convection developing off the Gulf (which can be seen
from Okaloosa to Washington counties around 2230Z. This will likely
continue to support a messy storm mode which, combined with very
weak low-level lapse rates (per 18Z LIX VWP), are the primary
limiting factor to a greater tornado/hail threat. However, given the
strong shear present, a tornado threat will continue through the
evening, particularly with the lead cell moving through eastern
Holmes county at 2230Z.
..Bentley.. 05/17/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TAE…MOB…
LAT…LON 30458804 31158670 31178538 30958470 30678454 30468513
30318596 30288684 30278776 30458804
