MD 0818 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0818
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Areas affected…The Florida Peninsula into northern florida and
southeast Georgia
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 172317Z – 180045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Trends are being monitored for a potential watch extension
of watch 254 or a new watch.
DISCUSSION…The cluster of storms near the Alabama/Florida border
has now mostly weakened with one primary large supercell on the
leading edge the only remaining threat. However, the environment
ahead of this supercell has continued to destabilize and recently
the storm has started to turn southeast. The 2230Z WoFS has the
greatest 0-2km UH probabilities into Gadsden county later this
evening. Therefore, if it appears the storm will maintain intensity
south of the current watch area, an areal extension of the watch may
be needed. In addition, there has been some intensification to the
storms moving across central Georgia as low-level moisture increases
ahead of the storms. This may maintain some severe weather threat to
the Atlantic coast which could necessitate a new tornado watch. If
this appears likely, a new watch may need to be issued. Storm trends
will be monitored and watch/extension decisions will be made
shortly.
..Bentley/Smith.. 05/17/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…JAX…TAE…
LAT…LON 30338573 30718494 30718410 30778368 31168309 31458272
31398174 31098139 30618182 30148341 30108397 30038433
29928484 30058528 30338573
