MD 0824 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST MS INTO NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Areas affected…Northeast MS into northern AL and southern middle
TN
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 181644Z – 181845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated hail and damaging gusts may accompany storms this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Convection associated with a compact midlevel low
(which is centered near the TN/AR/MS border) is gradually
intensifying late this morning from northeast MS into northern AL
and southern middle TN. Some continued increase in storm coverage
and intensity may continue into this afternoon, within a moist and
uncapped environment (with MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1000
J/kg). This region is on the northern periphery of stronger flow
aloft, but effective shear of 25-35 kt could occasionally support
some modestly organized storm structures through the afternoon.
Isolated hail could accompany any storms that remain semi-discrete,
while a bowing segment or two could evolve with a threat of isolated
damaging gusts as storms spread eastward across northern AL and
southern middle TN.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MRX…OHX…BMX…HUN…MEG…JAN…
LAT…LON 33459003 33988863 34528811 35538746 35468655 35418594
34968580 33888598 33298688 32898776 32698850 32658914
32878966 33459003
