MD 0825 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0825
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Areas affected…the eastern FL Peninsula
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 181816Z – 182015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…A very warm and moist airmass is in place across the FL
Peninsula this afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid 90s
F and dewpoints well into the 70s F. Recent objective mesoanalyses
and the 15Z XMR sounding (modified for current surface conditions)
indicate that MLCAPE has increased to near/above 2500 J/kg across
most of the peninsula early this afternoon. Meanwhile, modest
midlevel southwesterly flow is supporting effective shear of 30-40
kt across the region, resulting in a conditionally favorable
environment for somewhat organized convection.
Decreasing MLCINH could result in isolated storm initiation over a
larger portion of the central/eastern peninsula, but the greatest
storm coverage is expected to focus near the east coast sea breeze
later this afternoon. A few stronger multicells and perhaps a couple
of supercells will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and
localized severe gusts. In addition, a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out as cells interact with the sea breeze boundary.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…MLB…JAX…
LAT…LON 25808046 27268063 28858168 29858226 30218171 30238121
29508074 29108057 28698036 27608002 26267998 25748008
25808046
