MD 0826 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Areas affected…parts of central and northern Wisconsin into
western Upper Michigan
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 182003Z – 182200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Storms will increase in coverage over the next few hours,
with areas of strong to locally damaging gusts and marginal hail.
DISCUSSION…Strong heating across the area has resulted in up to
1000 J/kg MLCAPE as temperatures rise through the 80s F. A prominent
cold front/wind shift is moving across western WI and into the
western MI U.P. with signs of deepening convection within a
pre-frontal warm conveyor.
Winds veering with height which may tend to favor cellular storm
mode, with a broken line of storms possible along the front. This
may favor hail initially. With time, outflows may consolidate, with
perhaps linear segments along the front aiding wind potential.
Midlevel wind speeds averaging near 40 kt along with the steep
boundary layer lapse rates may tend to favor strong outflow
production this afternoon into the early evening.
..Jewell/Hart.. 05/18/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MQT…GRB…MKX…DLH…ARX…MPX…
LAT…LON 44628944 43748984 43489016 43409062 43539097 43969129
44479133 45199120 46319098 46679078 47089043 47118994
46988929 46228911 45538926 44628944
