MD 0827 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NC INTO NORTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Areas affected…NC into northern SC
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 182049Z – 182245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated damaging winds and hail are possible into early
evening.
DISCUSSION…Convection is gradually increasing across parts of NC
late this afternoon, near a weak cold front draped across northern
NC, and also near a confluence zone farther south into
central/eastern NC. Modest heating of a moist boundary layer has
resulted in moderate destabilization south of the cold front, and a
further increase in storm coverage and intensity is possible with
time into early evening. This area is on the northern fringe of
stronger deep-layer flow associated with a shortwave trough over the
TN Valley vicinity, and some modest storm organization is possible.
Initial more discrete storms may be capable of producing isolated
hail and damaging gusts. With time, some consolidation of storms
will be possible along the southward-moving cold front. This may
lead to some increase in damaging-wind potential, though there may
also be a tendency for the front to undercut storms as outflow helps
to accelerate it southward.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…AKQ…MHX…RAH…ILM…RNK…CAE…GSP…
LAT…LON 34978279 35118326 35428330 35568319 35698275 35858203
36378099 36398094 36188010 35897930 35827851 35897813
35937764 35947719 35667623 35237628 34987634 34607651
34327717 34127794 34277914 34468018 34658121 34978279
