MD 0831 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Areas affected…Parts of the central/northern High Plains
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 191809Z – 192015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Severe storms capable of producing severe gusts and hail
will be possible later this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION…Diurnal heating of a modestly moist environment is
underway across the central/northern High Plains vicinity, with
recent attempts at high-based storm development already noted across
the NE Panhandle. Continued heating will support MLCAPE rising to
near/above 1000 J/kg across parts of the region later this
afternoon, along with decreasing CINH. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected with time as a shortwave trough currently
over the northern Rockies approaches the region.
Deep-layer shear will generally be supportive of organized
convection, especially with northward extent across SD into far
southern ND. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells
with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. With time,
consolidating outflows within a relatively warm and well-mixed
environment could support some upscale growth and an increasing
severe-wind threat. Watch issuance is likely for parts of this
region later this afternoon.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ABR…BIS…LBF…UNR…GLD…BOU…CYS…
LAT…LON 41050399 42330388 44350340 45520223 46250124 46369999
43870038 41100090 39670107 39640228 41050399
