MD 0833 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0833
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Areas affected…Parts of Central Kansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 191905Z – 192100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…A favorable mesoscale environment for severe weather,
including tornadoes, will exist along an outflow boundary in central
Kansas. Storm coverage may remain isolated at least in the short
term. A watch is likely this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…A storm has developed in Trego County. This development
appears to have evolved out of elevated convective activity. This
storm has not been overly organized per KGLD/KDDC radar imagery, but
the environment along an outflow boundary continues to destabilize.
The potential exists for this storm to become rooted at the surface.
With surface heating occurring north of the outflow, MLCIN should
steadily erode and not be overly prohibitive to storm maintenance.
Low-level shear will be locally maximized near the outflow boundary.
As such, any storm that can favorably interact with this boundary
will have greater potential to produce a tornado as well as
very-large hail. Additional storms could develop farther east, but
this scenario is more uncertain. Some high-resolution guidance
evolves this activity into a linear segment. Severe wind gusts would
become a greater threat if that occurs.
..Wendt/Hart.. 05/19/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TOP…ICT…GID…DDC…GLD…
LAT…LON 38699862 38589952 38740019 38960014 39049982 39059946
39299860 39849761 39819695 39519679 38829789 38699862
