MD 0835 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259… FOR WESTERN NE…SOUTHWEST SD…EXTREME NORTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 0835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Areas affected…Western NE…Southwest SD…extreme northeast CO
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259…
Valid 192050Z – 192215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
continues.
SUMMARY…The threat for hail and severe gusts should increase into
late afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
across the NE Panhandle into northeast CO this afternoon, with some
increase also recently noted into southwest SD and extreme
west-central WY. Sufficient deep-layer shear (effective shear of 40+
kt) and steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to support a hail
threat with ongoing discrete cells from northeast CO into the NE
Panhandle, with some additional discrete cell development possible
into southwest SD. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out with any
sustained supercell, especially over northeast CO where multiple
surface boundaries are in place.
With time, some clustering of storms will be possible as outflows
consolidate, leading to an increase in severe-wind potential late
this afternoon into early evening, especially in areas where
stronger heating and deeper mixing have occurred this afternoon.
..Dean.. 05/19/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LBF…UNR…GLD…BOU…CYS…
LAT…LON 40740324 43990406 44610280 44640193 44230119 43700104
41790122 41450130 41080139 40730149 40160196 39690332
40740324
