
MD 0084 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN…WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0084 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Texas Coastal Plain...Western and Central Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120808Z - 120915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat, with strong wind gusts and hail, is expected to develop late tonight into early this morning across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain into parts of western and central Louisiana. DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains late tonight. In response, moisture advection will continue across the Texas Coastal Plain. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near Laredo northeastward to northwest of Victoria to near College Station. The stronger convection is located to the west of this boundary. The RAP has MUCAPE varying from around 500 J/kg in southeast Texas to near 1500 J/kg in south Texas. As low-level moisture advection continues overnight, instability will gradually increase. Most RAP forecast soundings to the west of the front have a low-level temperature inversion, with effective shear above the inversion in the 50 to 60 knot range. This could support a marginal severe threat with the stronger elevated cores, with hail possible. As convective coverage increases, surface-based storms may develop near the front. The stronger cells could have marginally severe gusts, in addition to hail. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29239601 28519726 28309777 28319806 28439815 28759808 29459760 30319671 31089569 31789456 32109386 32199334 32219289 32139262 31899240 31509247 31109280 30819317 30539368 29989481 29239601