SPC MD 84

SPC MD 84

MD 0084 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TX

Mesoscale Discussion 0084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

Areas affected…Parts of South TX

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 240404Z – 240600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible
overnight, primarily in the form of hail from 0.75-1.25 inches and
wind from 40-60 mph.

DISCUSSION…An uptick in thunderstorm coverage has occurred along
and to the north of a wavy surface front from Deep South TX into
southeast TX. The bulk of stronger mid-level flow has been confined
to the cool side of the front per DFX and EWX VWP data, with
pronounced weakness in the 1-3 km AGL hodograph in the CRP VWP. As
such, along the northern gradient of modest MLCAPE amid moderate
mid-level lapse rates, this setup will probably foster occasional
mid-level updraft rotation. Marginally severe hail and locally
strong gusts will likely be the main threats. A longer-duration
supercell could evolve near the front along the northern fringe of
mid to upper 60s surface dew points, being supported by relatively
stronger low-level shear over southeast TX per the HGX VWP. Should
this conditionally occur, a brief tornado will be possible.

..Grams/Thompson.. 01/24/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…HGX…CRP…EWX…

LAT…LON 29389755 30049655 30329597 30449556 30499521 30379483
29919488 29599500 29079562 28679650 28209773 27939844
27799914 27789953 28049974 28489979 28689964 29389755

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