MD 0840 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN KS…FAR SOUTHEAST NE…WESTERN MO…SOUTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Areas affected…Eastern KS…far southeast NE…western
MO…southwest IA
Concerning…Severe potential…Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 192255Z – 200030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent
SUMMARY…A developing MCS over central Kansas is expected to
accelerate east-northeastward later this evening towards parts of
the Mid to Lower Missouri Valley. Damaging winds from 70-90 mph will
be the primary threat, most likely across eastern Kansas. A
downstream severe thunderstorm watch will be needed.
DISCUSSION…As alluded to in MCD 0839, increasingly widespread
severe wind gusts are expected as multiple intense thunderstorm
clusters over north-central to southwest KS consolidate by
mid-evening. The leading cluster across north-central KS should
spread into northeast KS initially, with additional low-level
warm-advection-driven storms possible farther northeast across the
Mid-MO Valley. Surface dew points are generally in the mid 50s to
low 60s across northeast KS and southeast NE currently and this may
mitigate eastward intensification in the near-term. But a plume of
higher surface dew points exists both to the south, emanating north
from OK, and farther east into central/northern MO. Eventual cluster
consolidation will probably yield eastward acceleration later this
evening with embedded bows spreading across at least eastern KS. A
plume of substantial MLCIN that will increase after dusk across
eastern OK and southeast KS, may result in the more prominent severe
wind threat arcing east-northeastward in time.
..Grams/Smith.. 05/19/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SGF…DMX…EAX…OAX…TOP…ICT…
LAT…LON 39859658 40619637 41179558 41169463 40899345 40459313
38249378 37019512 37069656 38219623 39299628 39859658
