
MD 0086 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR FAR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Far northwest North Carolina into western and central Virginia Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 121658Z - 122200Z SUMMARY...Another round of freezing rain is expected through the late afternoon and evening hours in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains as precipitation advances northeastward. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show a swath of stratiform precipitation associated with a broad mid-level warm frontal zone spreading northeastward from northern MS/AL and TN into the western Carolinas. Downstream from the precipitation swath, surface temperatures in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains from far northwest NC into western and central VA remain below freezing. 12 UTC soundings from GSO and RNK sampled a 4-7 C warm nose at about 850 mb that will remain in place through the remainder of the day (if not strengthen) as warm advection increases ahead of an approaching upper disturbance. A combination of very limited daytime heating, continued cold air damming along the terrain, and minimal surface heat flux (due to recent ice accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5 inch) will maintain a pocket of sub-freezing surface temperatures and support freezing rain as the primary precipitation type. The next round of freezing rain will likely begin as the upstream precipitation swath spreads northeast through the afternoon hours. Recent high-res solutions, which have captured overall precipitation trends well, suggest an onset time of around 18 UTC for far northwest NC and far southwest VA, and a later onset time of around 20 UTC for western/central VA. Persistent warm advection ahead of a deepening low to the west will support the potential for multiple rounds of freezing rain through late afternoon and into the evening hours with freezing rain rates generally between 0.03 to 0.06 inches/hour (though locally higher rates appear possible). ..Moore.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36947909 36727990 36428065 36198128 36008162 35958194 36228196 36598173 36928147 37488094 38307981 38407939 38467876 38287787 37997739 37677727 37387739 37177793 37077854 36947909