SPC MD 86

SPC MD 86

MD 0086 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LA…SOUTHWEST MS

Mesoscale Discussion 0086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

Areas affected…Central/Southeast LA…Southwest MS

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 241255Z – 241500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are
possible for the next few hours across central and southeast
Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.

DISCUSSION…Recent regional radar imagery shows a convective line
from central MS southwestward into southwest LA. This line is moving
slowly eastward, while cells within the line move quickly to the
northeast. Line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer vertical
shear has resulted in a largely anafrontal/undercut storm character
and limited severe potential thus far. This trend is expected to
continue, particularly with the northern extent of the line across
central and southwest MS where low-level stability and related
convective inhibition exist.

Farther south (across central and eastern LA), ample low-level
moisture has resulted in limited convective inhibition, but poor
lapse rates are limiting buoyancy as well. Even so, a few stronger
updrafts are possible as the line pushes eastward, particularly if
favorable storm interactions/cell mergers occur. Primary severe
threat is isolated, water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging
gusts. Veering low-level winds also support a low-probability
potential for a brief tornado with any warm sector updrafts that can
deepen and mature.

..Mosier/Goss.. 01/24/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…JAN…LIX…LCH…

LAT…LON 29699282 30489212 31609079 31658995 31158949 29699052
29369121 29699282

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