MD 0009 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS…SOUTHERN ARKANSAS…AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0908 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025
Areas affected...portions of east Texas...southern Arkansas...and
northwest Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 051508Z - 051745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through
midday. A risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and
isolated small hail is expected from East Texas into northwest
Louisiana and southern Arkansas.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has already developed this
morning ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front extending across
eastern OK into northeast and central Texas. Ahead of the front,
low-level moisture is increasing on southerly low-level flow across
the Sabine Valley. Surface dewpoints in the mid-60s F are noted in
surface observations from just south of Shreveport southward to the
Gulf coast. As a warm front draped across southwest AR into central
LA lifts northward through early afternoon, destabilization is
expected to increase with north and eastward extent.
Regional VAD wind profiles and morning soundings show strong
vertical shear is already in place, with effective shear magnitudes
greater than 35 kt noted. Furthermore, enlarged, favorably curved
low-level hodographs are evident, aided by an intense low-level jet
near 50 kt overspreading the region. This will support organized,
rotating storms capable of damaging gusts and tornadoes.
Given the fairly quick eastward-moving cold front, linear forcing
mechanisms will likely favor continued development of a QLCS just
ahead of the front. Strong forcing and increasing low-level moisture
will also aid in erosion of capping south of the warm front. Some
potential exists for semi-discrete cell development ahead of the
QLCS in low-level confluence bands. These bands are already evident
in morning visible satellite imagery and region radar data. Isolated
convection has already started to develop within these bands near
the Sabine River. Any discrete supercells developing within the
deeper moisture in the warm sector wedge will pose a risk for all
severe hazards. Given current trends, a tornado watch will likely be
needed within the next 1-2 hours.
..Leitman/Smith.. 01/05/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31999566 31279609 30819613 30379598 30079530 30079472
30349403 31369258 32689210 33419220 33899288 34059359
33669450 32249550 31999566
